Prediction of Amr Elsayed vs Daniil Ostapenkov at M25 Sharm ElSheikh 10-04-25

• Daniil Ostapenkov has a slight edge in second serve performance, winning 42.33% of points, compared to Amr Elsayed's 40.65% over the past six months.
• In returning their opponents' second serve points, Amr Elsayed leads with 49.37% against Daniil Ostapenkov's 44.44%.
• Is Amr Elsayed more effective under pressure? Yes, having saved 51.98% of breakpoints compared to Daniil Ostapenkov's 44.50% recently.
• Daniil Ostapenkov has a superior match winning record over the last year, securing 76.12% of his matches, while Amr Elsayed has won 50.85%.
• Both players perform their best on Hard courts, with a 70% win rate, but Amr Elsayed struggles on Indoor Hard surfaces.
• Daniil Ostapenkov has faced more challenging opponents, with an average rank of 278.58, while Amr Elsayed's opponents averaged a rank of 385.9.
• How do they perform in deciding sets? Daniil Ostapenkov has won 63% of deciding sets, compared to 43% by Amr Elsayed in the last 12 months.
• Looking at head-to-head records, Daniil Ostapenkov has won their sole encounter, taking both sets against Amr Elsayed.
• On court, Daniil Ostapenkov's victories against stronger opponents suggest he might have an advantage due to heightened competition exposure.

Editorial Prediction (October 3, 2025, UTC):

Daniil Ostapenkov appears to have a slight advantage heading into the match, backed by stronger performance metrics in several key areas. His higher success rate in matches over the last year, particularly on Hard courts, showcases his recent form and adaptability. Additionally, his historically better performance under pressure in deciding sets contributes to a competitive edge.

Amr Elsayed, while effective in returning serves and saving breakpoints, has faced less challenging competition and has underperformed on certain surfaces. This gap in opponent quality could prove to be a deciding factor.

Factoring in their head-to-head history, where Ostapenkov previously secured a decisive win, suggests he may maintain this success. Thus, based on various performance indicators, Daniil Ostapenkov is likely to emerge victorious in this upcoming match.